6.0 CONCLUSIONS
It seems that the Information Age is just hitting its full stride. Information now dominates global network planning. Telephony no longer defines network design or new service development. Instead, voice is becoming a component of a data-oriented infrastructure. The conversion of society to an information- based network is ubiquitous and so pervasive that it overshadows telephony and places more demand upon the global networks than telephones.
During the 1990s, the demand for information consumed almost all of the available fiber within the United States and forced the rapid introduction of DWDM. Demand continues to grow at rates that exceed the rate of growth in electronic switching technology. Electronic systems are no longer the leader in communications network evolution.
The communications industry stands upon the threshold of a new era in network design. Copper cables are obsolete. Fiber optic cables already dominate every aspect of submarine, continental, and local exchange transmission. Electronic multiplexing, be it PDH or SONET, will inevitably vanish from high capacity networks, having been replaced by DWDM. Early photonic switching devices are taking the place of electronic protection and restoration switching systems. Inevitably, photonic switching will emerge in the core network as replacements to electronic IP routers and ATM switches.
Photonic technology is setting the pace for growth in the Information Age. Photonic transmission capacity is doubling every nine months, which is more than twice the rate of electronic transmission capacity growth. The disparity between electronic switching and photonic transmission capacities leaves vast amounts of fiber optic capacity unexploited. Electronic switching has become the bottleneck in high capacity networks.
The transition to photonic networks is a clear and inevitable trend. Driven by the exploding demand for information and encouraged by the promise of video communication, the global communications infrastructure will incorporate photonic multiplexing and switching as quickly as the technology matures. The demand for information will push fiber optics to the curb and ultimately to the home. It will relegate electronics to the periphery of the network where it will operate so long as it is more practical or economical than its photonic counterparts. If the evolution from transistor to computer repeats itself, then there will be an evolution from crude photonic switches and optical amplifiers to photonic routers and ultimately photonic computing.
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